Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x2132…118e other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$136 (+15%) realized +$186 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$50
sports 28% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +12.1% +1.4% 73% 73% +5.5%
≤30d 11 +12.1% +1.4% 73% 73% +5.5%
≤90d 11 +12.1% +1.4% 73% 73% +5.5%
all 11 +12.1% +1.4% 73% 73% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 73% +5.5%
10% -8.3% 73% -4.6%
15% -17.2% 55% -13.8%
20% -25.3% 36% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$55 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 42¢ 20¢ $92 $42 −$50 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $134 +$89 +66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$27 +67%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $22 +$10 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$44 -73%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $81 +$38 +47%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$63 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $223 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $121 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 65¢ $49 3d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 3d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 3d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $61 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $58 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $59 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $63 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $163 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.08 · official $98.62 · 33 history records