Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2130…ffb2
world · 21 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$6 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$18
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)6 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Yes 73¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+121%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 46¢ 71¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 89¢ 83¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 55¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 53¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 69¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Yes 46¢ 39¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 49¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$4 +380%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% +$1
sports 14% +$6
finance 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $0 13m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 77¢ $0 1h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 77¢ $0 1h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 77¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $0 1h
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $0 2h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 76¢ $0 2h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 76¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $0 2h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 97¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 94¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 92¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 92¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 90¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 90¢ $0 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1 3h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $0 3h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 3h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 79¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 89¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 89¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 88¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+69.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +87.5% +69.7% 83% 67% +59.9%
≤30d 6 +87.5% +69.7% 83% 67% +59.9%
≤90d 6 +87.5% +69.7% 83% 67% +59.9%
all 6 +87.5% +69.7% 83% 67% +59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.7% 67% +59.9%
10% ← realistic here +53.4% 50% +44.6%
15% +38.6% 50% +30.7%
20% +25.0% 33% +17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.33 · official $18.33 (match) · 106 history records