Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x212a…a758 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (224 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$7 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day224.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 33% -7.8%
≤30d 3 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 33% -7.8%
≤90d 3 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 33% -7.8%
all 3 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 33% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover224.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 33% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -16.6%
15% -23.9% 0% -24.7%
20% -31.4% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day224.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 74¢ 100¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+36%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 75¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+34%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner XLG Gaming 77¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 83¢ 70¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 40¢ 18¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-56%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$16 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $72 −$4 -6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 89¢ $0 1m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 88¢ $0 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 88¢ $1 7m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 89¢ $0 7m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 89¢ $1 7m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 81¢ $0 9m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 84¢ $6 12m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 82¢ $4 13m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 69¢ $0 20m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 60¢ $20 24m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 1¢ $7 26m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 7¢ $1 26m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 19¢ $1 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 20¢ $1 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 27¢ $2 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 25¢ $4 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 54¢ $10 27m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $19 30m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 38¢ $2 31m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 36¢ $2 31m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 44¢ $2 31m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 56¢ $12 31m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 31¢ $1 32m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 29¢ $1 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 69¢ $0 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 73¢ $13 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 27¢ $1 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 48¢ $1 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 34¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 96¢ $18 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.13 · official $59.13 (match) · 224 history records