Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2128…f83e politics 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%5W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$5
sports 27% −$3
other 11% −$3
culture 7% $0
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% −$4
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -33.3% -39.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -29.7% -36.4% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 58 -14.8% -22.9% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -30.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -37.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -43.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses5 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage226d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $97 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $2 $0 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $95 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $94 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $97 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $3 $0 -17%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 28 $95 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 25 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $1 $0 -14%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $1 $0 -50%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $1 $0 -12%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $2 $0 -17%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $2 $0 -20%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $104 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $216 $0 -0%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Dec 03 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $97 23d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 107d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 107d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 109d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 109d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 112d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $94 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $94 120d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $95 128d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $94 133d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 143d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 145d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $95 146d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $95 147d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 147d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 147d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 148d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 148d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 149d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 149d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $101 149d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $101 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.30 · official $93.30 (match) · 211 history records