Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
21 0x2128…da98 other 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$115,513 (+15%) realized +$115,507 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%106W / 84L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$4,076per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$527est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17,446
7 days+$7,426
14 days−$9,866
30 days+$3,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$102,810
sports 8% +$10,817
crypto 0% +$1,494
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +16.8% +5.7% 52% 39% -0.2%
≤30d 58 +16.8% +5.7% 55% 45% -6.7%
≤90d 169 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 49% +5.2%
all 190 +10.5% +0.0% 56% 48% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 48% +4.2%
10% -9.6% 42% -5.7%
15% ← realistic here -18.3% 36% -14.8%
20% -26.3% 31% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$6,831) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,878 vs −$3,523 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1,074
Realized+$115,507
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses106 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$527
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage105d
Avg bet$4,076
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,068 $1,074 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $6,577 +$16,942 +258%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10,002 +$1,622 +16%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $87 +$113 +129%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $7,992 +$3,108 +39%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $4,778 −$4,761 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,272 +$181 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $224 +$243 +108%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,605 −$1,605 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $626 −$626 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,413 +$87 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19,238 −$9,619 -50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9,337 −$9,097 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $114 +$164 +144%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,808 +$143 +5%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $154 +$314 +203%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,184 −$5,184 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $924 +$445 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,754 −$1,754 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $777 −$769 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $131 −$131 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,434 +$17,988 +524%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8,348 −$8,287 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,036 −$1,023 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $384 −$384 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $348 +$60 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $107 +$178 +165%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,640 +$217 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5,018 +$198 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $568 +$82 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $442 −$442 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $157 +$50 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $736 −$732 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $895 +$740 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $360 −$354 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,912 −$5,912 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,967 +$3,633 +185%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,366 +$234 +10%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $337 −$337 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,236 +$138 +6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $881 +$227 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,310 −$6,293 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $245 +$29 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 +$310 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $261 +$465 +178%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $130 +$94 +72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,657 +$14,592 +880%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 92¢ $1,068 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $0 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $6 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $16 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $110 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $194 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $38 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $8 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $4 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $6 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $76 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $233 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $4 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $13 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $39 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $36 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $572 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $6 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $39 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $6 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $194 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $6 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,074.30 · official $1,074.30 (match) · 3326 history records