Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2126…aeeb sports 290 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,295 (+15%) realized +$1,295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%134W / 156L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day130.4pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$784
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 45% -1.4%
≤30d 290 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 45% -1.4%
≤90d 290 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 45% -1.4%
all 290 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 45% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 45% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 40% -10.8%
15% -34.7% 34% -19.4%
20% -41.1% 28% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses134 / 156
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)290 / 290
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day130.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 290 Trades
no open positions (141 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $55 +$25 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $71 +$9 +12%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $170 −$169 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +354%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +92%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +45%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $145 −$143 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $45 −$45 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $508 +$124 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $452 +$114 +25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $58 −$58 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -47%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$18 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $120 +$80 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $90 +$72 +80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $153 +$105 +69%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $44 −$43 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $277 +$323 +116%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $47 +$16 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $71 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $69 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $69 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $57 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $28 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $27 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $16 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $14 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $14 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $14 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $11 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $18 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $18 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $7 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 72¢ $57 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $55 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 22¢ $0 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1 18h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 19h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 1035 history records