Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
21 0x2120…2647 sports 97 markets active 3h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,308 (+3%) realized +$5,365 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%41W / 22L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$2,101per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,211
7 days+$1,211
14 days+$585
30 days+$1,327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$2,595
finance 9% +$829
other 6% +$823
crypto 2% +$145
sports 1% +$1,213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +133.0% +110.8% 38% 38% +113.1%
≤30d 20 +58.4% +43.3% 50% 45% +2.9%
≤90d 53 +21.2% +9.6% 58% 40% -12.0%
all 63 +20.4% +9.0% 65% 43% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.0% 43% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 29% -15.9%
15% -11.0% 17% -24.0%
20% -19.7% 13% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$862 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized+$5,365
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses41 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions34
Markets (closed)63 / 97
History coverage113d
Avg bet$2,101
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $110 $103 −$8 (-7%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $110 $89 −$21 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $84 $75 −$9 (-11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-11%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $113 +$366 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $113 +$412 +365%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $113 +$987 +874%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $113 −$111 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,557 −$56 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$74 +291%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $224 −$224 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $421 −$421 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $255 +$41 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,228 +$72 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $336 +$238 +71%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $1,123 +$689 +61%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 24 $336 −$336 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $200 +$39 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $750 −$452 -60%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $1,523 +$362 +24%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 20 $410 −$410 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 20 $315 +$33 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 17 $408 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1,656 +$90 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 17 $603 +$54 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 10 $1,274 +$87 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 10 $812 −$84 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 10 $858 +$117 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 02 $1,389 +$475 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 01 $900 +$30 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1? Apr 30 $360 −$360 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $1,430 +$217 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1,946 −$247 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $409 −$219 -54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 24 $605 −$47 -8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 24 $268 +$116 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 23 $2,490 −$2,162 -87%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 23 $274 +$181 +66%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 21 $31,026 −$7,069 -23%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $810 −$810 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 21 $10,258 −$5,471 -53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 08 $325 +$793 +244%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 07 $463 +$137 +30%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 06 $4,503 +$330 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 06 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 05 $10,958 +$922 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 04 $8,971 +$2,197 +24%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 03 $13,599 +$2,727 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 28h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 45h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 45h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 45h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 45h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 45h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 45h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 45h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 45h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 45h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 45h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 45h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 45h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 45h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 45h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 45h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 45h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.15 · official $799.51 (match) · 908 history records