Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x211f…3a34 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,913 (-16%) realized −$1,913 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$744per market
Trades / day67.6pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,730
other 2% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.2%
≤30d 16 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.2%
≤90d 16 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.2%
all 16 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 50% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 25% -36.9%
15% -43.2% 12% -43.0%
20% -48.8% 6% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$322 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,913
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$744
Trades / day67.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $932 +$152 +16%
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 29 $261 +$56 +22%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $1,194 −$409 -34%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $943 +$158 +17%
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $2,278 −$748 -33%
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Jun 29 $506 +$124 +24%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $250 +$118 +47%
Wimbledon WTA: Jaqueline Cristian vs Iva Jovic Jun 29 $21 −$21 -99%
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 29 $502 +$130 +26%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $251 −$100 -40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $95 +$107 +113%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $714 −$600 -84%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $1,557 −$518 -33%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $2,121 −$178 -8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $273 +$38 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 99¢ $448 15m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 97¢ $106 19m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $6 22m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $94 22m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 75¢ $101 25m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $99 33m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 80¢ $26 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 80¢ $30 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 80¢ $60 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 80¢ $8 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 71¢ $26 38m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 71¢ $74 38m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 77¢ $0 39m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 77¢ $78 39m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 77¢ $4 39m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 77¢ $43 39m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 91¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 91¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 90¢ $80 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 90¢ $45 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 89¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 75¢ $250 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 81¢ $65 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 81¢ $81 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 81¢ $63 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 81¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 81¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 96¢ $15 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 96¢ $90 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas SELL Stefanos Tsitsipas 99¢ $165 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records