Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x211f…f8fd other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+11%) realized +$52 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$50
politics 6% −$9
crypto 4% −$17
economics 2% −$11
sports 2% +$34
tech 1% +$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +148.7% +125.0% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 8 +128.5% +106.8% 62% 62% +24.1%
≤90d 8 +128.5% +106.8% 62% 62% +24.1%
all 29 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 38% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 38% +7.9%
10% -18.6% 31% -2.4%
15% -26.4% 28% -11.8%
20% -33.6% 28% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage287d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 +$15 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $73 +$12 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 23 $2 +$8 +404%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 +$6 +157%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $5 +$37 +733%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $4 −$4 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 04 $5 +$4 +84%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 03 $1 $0 -17%
US strikes Yemen by September 30? Sep 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Sep 23 $10 +$6 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Sep 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Sep 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-16? Sep 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? Sep 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video? Sep 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? Sep 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Kweon Seong-dong in jail by October 31? Sep 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 12, 5AM ET Sep 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? Sep 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference? Sep 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conferenc Sep 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 15? Sep 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $97 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $82 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 66¢ $82 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $85 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $73 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 28d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 28d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $4 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 137d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $9 204d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 235d
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 235d
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 235d
US strikes Yemen by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $18 274d
US strikes Yemen by September 30? BUY No 50¢ $10 275d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $16 275d
Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 281d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 281d
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? BUY No 11¢ $5 282d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? BUY No 58¢ $10 282d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 283d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY No 50¢ $5 283d
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 284d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY No 53¢ $10 284d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 284d
Kweon Seong-dong in jail by October 31? BUY No 25¢ $1 286d
Ethereum Up or Down - September 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 286d
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? BUY No 31¢ $2 286d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.68 · official $93.68 (match) · 44 history records