Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x211e…d447 crypto 672 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$623 (+6%) realized +$623 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%330W / 342L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$95
14 days+$188
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 83% 83% -4.6%
≤30d 226 -1.1% -10.6% 80% 56% -9.9%
≤90d 667 -24.6% -31.8% 49% 41% -6.6%
all 672 -22.7% -30.1% 49% 41% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 41% -6.5%
10% -36.8% 33% -15.5%
15% -42.9% 18% -23.6%
20% -48.5% 8% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses330 / 342
Open positions0
Markets (closed)672 / 672
History coverage98d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 672 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $67 +$21 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $112 +$43 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$127 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $204 +$73 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$12 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $79 +$25 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $113 +$70 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $73 +$27 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $205 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $114 +$113 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $67 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $101 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $56 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $79 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $69 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 1422 history records