Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2117…5c26
sports · 248 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19,891 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,459 · open −$2,036
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$323,246
Realized−$14,459
Unrealized−$2,036
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$4,841
Open positions213
Markets (closed)69 / 248
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2,663
Trades / day1068.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 213 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,459
7 days−$14,459
14 days−$14,459
30 days−$14,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $30,700 $30,963 +$263 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $28,335 $28,128 −$207 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 32¢ $17,205 $17,141 −$64 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 70¢ $9,304 $13,292 +$3,988 (+43%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 70¢ 69¢ $11,172 $11,098 −$74 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $11,567 $10,955 −$612 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10,218 $10,141 −$76 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $10,349 $10,084 −$264 (-3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $9,667 $9,761 +$95 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $9,330 $9,252 −$78 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $8,751 $8,930 +$178 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $7,907 $7,926 +$18 (+0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $7,860 $7,816 −$43 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $6,326 $7,544 +$1,217 (+19%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 61¢ 58¢ $7,427 $7,070 −$357 (-5%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $6,517 $6,529 +$11 (+0%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $6,353 $6,350 −$3 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 74¢ 97¢ $4,280 $5,592 +$1,311 (+31%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5,540 $5,543 +$3 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $3,933 $3,882 −$51 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $3,718 $3,684 −$34 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ 72¢ $3,690 $3,624 −$66 (-2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 51¢ 19¢ $9,116 $3,359 −$5,757 (-63%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3,381 $3,347 −$34 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3,090 $3,062 −$28 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $495 −$495 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $144 +$72 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15,714 −$15,714 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3,164 −$2,423 -77%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1,181 −$1,181 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9,315 −$8,992 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $38,979 −$29,380 -75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9,460 +$21,139 +224%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $2,207 +$2,253 +102%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $912 −$654 -72%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $199 +$7 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2,198 +$443 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,427 +$1,441 +59%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,319 +$41 +3%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $5,770 +$724 +12%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,133 −$879 -78%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1,509 +$127 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $7,338 −$7,296 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $95,959 +$44,377 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $150 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,906 +$984 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5,064 −$4,853 -96%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $8,299 +$7,836 +94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1,383 +$117 +8%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $398 −$31 -8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $697 +$291 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $16,016 +$7,856 +49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $296 −$48 -16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1,188 −$1,086 -91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,077 +$633 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $377 +$209 +55%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $31 +$20 +65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10,187 +$7,916 +78%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $7,070 +$5,893 +83%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $1,233 −$1,212 -98%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1,456 +$192 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $219 +$74 +34%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $252 −$246 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,082 +$198 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $490 +$374 +76%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6,223 −$6,972 -112%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4,557 +$824 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6,101 −$958 -16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $60 −$58 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $272 −$268 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $58 −$58 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,118 −$1,414 -126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$66,654
other 47% +$51,133
crypto 3% −$389
politics 2% −$81
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $170 1m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $500 1m
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $355 2m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $130 4m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 6m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ $194 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 12¢ $9 12m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 68¢ $143 15m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $224 16m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $265 18m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 19m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $141 22m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 23m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 23m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $97 24m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 24m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $164 25m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 25m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $157 25m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 30m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $85 31m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 96¢ $97 32m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 33m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 33m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 33m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 95¢ $98 33m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $124 36m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $96 36m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 96¢ $104 37m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -4.0% -13.1% 54% 45% -13.2%
≤30d 69 -4.0% -13.1% 54% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 69 -4.0% -13.1% 54% 45% -13.2%
all 69 -4.0% -13.1% 54% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1068.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 45% -13.2%
10% -21.4% 39% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -29.0% 36% -29.1%
20% -36.0% 30% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323,245.65 · official $323,247.12 (match) · 3500 history records