Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
21 0x2117…0a1d crypto 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$521 (+3%) realized +$566 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%130W / 77L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$338
14 days−$338
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$422
other 3% −$39
sports 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 207 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 49% -8.3%
all 207 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 49% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 49% -8.3%
10% -20.3% 36% -17.1%
15% -28.0% 26% -25.1%
20% -35.1% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$43 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized+$566
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses130 / 77
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)207 / 209
History coverage84d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $384 $358 −$26 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 31 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 25 $206 +$131 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 19 $204 +$87 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 16 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 13 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 13 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 09 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 07 $203 +$60 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 07 $204 +$70 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 07 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 07 $206 +$130 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 25 $200 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 24 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 12 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 12 $130 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 12 $118 +$186 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 12 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 12 $111 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 12 $968 +$104 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 12 $471 +$81 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 12 $28 −$15 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 12 $281 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 12 $130 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $392 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $102 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.55 · official $539.66 (match) · 578 history records