Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2117…9bed crypto 417 markets active 2h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,985 (+3%) realized +$2,023 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate67%277W / 137L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$361
7 days+$481
14 days+$760
30 days+$1,728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1,095
crypto 22% +$129
weather 17% −$294
politics 10% +$340
sports 8% +$273
other 4% +$336
finance 0% −$18
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.4% +7.1% 64% 64% +4.1%
≤30d 26 +35.8% +22.9% 65% 54% +1.2%
≤90d 172 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 44% -5.3%
all 414 -3.9% -13.0% 67% 32% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 32% -6.6%
10% -21.4% 20% -15.5%
15% -29.0% 12% -23.7%
20% -35.9% 9% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$37 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$3,282
Realized+$2,023
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses277 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)414 / 417
History coverage358d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $1,800 $1,870 +$70 (+4%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 83¢ 72¢ $840 $729 −$111 (-13%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $680 $683 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $2,714 +$360 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 −$17 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $61 +$17 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$11 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $244 +$57 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$28 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$12 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$32 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $134 +$59 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2,700 +$20 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,500 +$200 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $83 +$18 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,200 +$272 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $31 −$26 -84%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $79 +$23 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $101 −$28 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $401 +$14 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $1,460 +$809 +55%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $62 +$538 +873%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $400 +$110 +28%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $524 −$521 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $700 −$239 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $460 −$388 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 23? May 23 $6 −$6 -89%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 23 $52 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 23? May 23 $3 +$6 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $3 −$3 -85%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $382 +$11 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $700 −$112 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $600 +$98 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $600 +$114 +19%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12? May 12 $42 −$17 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11? May 11 $78 +$22 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10? May 10 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $700 +$33 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $600 +$91 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $79 −$25 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $72 −$53 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on May 5? May 05 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5? May 05 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 4? May 04 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $85 +$15 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,804 2h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 67¢ $689 3h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $846 16h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $3,074 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 31¢ $16 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 58¢ $28 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $31 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $31 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $301 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $244 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $134 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $2,714 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $2,720 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,281.66 · official $3,281.66 (match) · 1273 history records