Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2114…84c5 sports 241 markets active 5h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$145,567 (-14%) realized −$145,567 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%98W / 143L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,377per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$10,624est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,412
7 days−$5,225
14 days−$61,647
30 days−$266,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$151,153
other 32% −$15,334
world 1% −$11,403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +60.0% +44.8% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤30d 121 -30.6% -37.2% 26% 26% -54.7%
≤90d 241 -10.3% -18.8% 41% 41% -24.8%
all 241 -10.3% -18.8% 41% 41% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 41% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 40% -32.0%
15% -33.7% 39% -38.6%
20% -40.2% 39% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$6,483) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,245 vs −$4,153 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145,567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses98 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$10,624
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage76d
Avg bet$4,377
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $17,402 −$17,111 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $2,470 −$112 -5%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $9,743 +$6,846 +70%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2,903 +$3,734 +129%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $789 −$789 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $3,511 −$3,511 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5,057 +$3,008 +60%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $10 +$516 +5013%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11,457 +$12,538 +109%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $6,565 +$1,229 +19%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $6,553 +$5,639 +86%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $11,881 +$11,599 +98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $2,372 +$2,212 +93%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $10,168 −$1,241 -12%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $337 −$337 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $756 −$756 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,347 −$1,347 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $2,447 −$2,447 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $3,839 −$3,839 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 179.5 Jun 26 $4,633 −$4,633 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $4,592 −$4,592 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $6,483 −$5,382 -83%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15,386 −$15,386 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 26 $11,994 −$11,994 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,983 +$2,085 +105%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,320 +$1,280 +97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $2,904 +$3,288 +113%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $5,980 +$5,146 +86%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1,290 +$2,132 +165%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,301 +$4,805 +146%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,406 +$1,964 +140%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $7,517 +$1,939 +26%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,489 +$1,359 +55%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $356 −$356 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $686 −$686 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,370 −$1,370 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5,073 −$5,073 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5,073 −$5,073 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 21 $4,975 −$4,975 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11,132 −$11,132 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10,105 −$10,105 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $11,403 −$11,403 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 21 $11,178 −$11,178 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $508 +$534 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3,619 +$3,242 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $2,356 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 53¢ $2,357 6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $2,470 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $10,171 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $4,875 9h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $9,743 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $2,903 28h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 0¢ $8 40h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 40h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $789 42h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5,057 43h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3,511 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $11,457 45h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 85¢ $1,507 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 85¢ $1,246 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6,553 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1,700 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 83¢ $3,812 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10,150 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Iraq 40¢ $8,927 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $5,084 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $5,084 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $239 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $223 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,910 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1,731 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 53¢ $5,980 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $866 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1,117 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1,290 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 626 history records