Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2114…1037 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$387 (-11%) realized −$386 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%36W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$148
14 days−$426
30 days−$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$549
world 10% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% -33.2%
≤30d 80 -22.1% -29.5% 45% 42% -25.4%
≤90d 80 -22.1% -29.5% 45% 42% -25.4%
all 80 -22.1% -29.5% 45% 42% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 42% -25.4%
10% -36.2% 38% -32.6%
15% -42.4% 31% -39.1%
20% -48.0% 16% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$386
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses36 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage18d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 73¢ 56¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $108 −$72 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $92 −$67 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$34 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $18 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 -20%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$4 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $17 +$9 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $355 −$234 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $155 +$109 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $117 +$38 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $77 +$35 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 02 $101 −$90 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $232 +$43 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $35 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $64 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.32 · official $2.16 (match) · 352 history records