Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2113…d673 other 14 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-7%) realized +$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$4
sports 14% +$2
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -71.8% -74.5% 20% 20% -22.1%
≤30d 6 -53.9% -58.3% 33% 33% -10.0%
≤90d 6 -53.9% -58.3% 33% 33% -10.0%
all 6 -53.9% -58.3% 33% 33% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.3% 33% -10.0%
10% -62.3% 33% -18.6%
15% -65.9% 33% -26.5%
20% -69.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $6 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.83 · official $16.83 (match) · 17 history records