Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2113…58be crypto 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%264W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$40
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$47
politics 7% −$17
finance 2% −$19
other 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 +1.6% -8.0% 99% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 270 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 270 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.2%
all 270 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses264 / 6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)270 / 277
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 83¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.91 · official $135.91 (match) · 546 history records