Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2112…34dc sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$267 (+3%) realized +$341 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%56W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$60
14 days+$230
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$315
other 9% −$109
crypto 8% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -31.5% -38.0% 67% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 72 -12.0% -20.4% 75% 25% -7.2%
≤90d 74 -10.1% -18.7% 76% 27% -6.6%
all 74 -10.1% -18.7% 76% 27% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 27% -6.6%
10% -26.5% 12% -15.5%
15% -33.6% 4% -23.7%
20% -40.1% 1% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$341
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses56 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage32d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Seattle Orcas 74¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire Jun 26 $165 +$2 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama Jun 24 $244 +$6 +3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $628 +$17 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $600 +$6 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $591 +$37 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $582 +$18 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $542 +$46 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $508 +$32 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $474 +$36 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $46 +$4 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $60 +$10 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $410 +$30 +7%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $20 +$7 +37%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 11 $8 −$3 -36%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Mongolia Jun 06 $291 +$9 +3%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $118 +$10 +8%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $8 +$2 +27%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $7 +$3 +50%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $10 +$2 +15%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $29 −$28 -99%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $128 −$25 -20%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $456 +$49 +11%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $6 +$1 +10%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Botswana vs Rwanda May 30 $121 +$16 +13%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $46 +$9 +20%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Essex May 29 $50 +$4 +8%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $41 +$5 +12%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $44 −$2 -4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $42 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $347 +$101 +29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 28 $51 −$44 -88%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $50 +$4 +9%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 28 $50 +$3 +7%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $50 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 74¢ $75 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 63¢ $6 10h
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire BUY Lancashire 99¢ $165 10h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 99¢ $1 2d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 99¢ $238 2d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Panama 91¢ $6 2d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Panama 91¢ $3 2d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 50¢ $5 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $627 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 48¢ $5 5d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $600 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $591 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 75¢ $15 6d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 98¢ $490 7d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 91¢ $91 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $542 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $448 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $58 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $48 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $427 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $46 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 86¢ $60 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 93¢ $410 12d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 74¢ $15 12d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates BUY Thailand 76¢ $16 13d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates BUY Thailand 61¢ $4 13d
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan BUY Thailand 78¢ $8 16d
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia BUY Malaysia 25¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 172 history records