Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2111…59a0 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$27
politics 21% −$7
sports 9% −$22
economics 6% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -2.1% -11.4% 9% 5% -9.7%
all 112 -2.1% -11.4% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage92d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $156 $156 −$0 (-0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 46¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $316 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $133 $0 +0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $304 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $291 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $482 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $244 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $248 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $261 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $262 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $495 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $270 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $485 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $257 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $755 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $7 6h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 23h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 26h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 27h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 47h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $156 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 14d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 14d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.27 · official $162.27 (match) · 350 history records