Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x210f…0da2 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-7%) realized −$280 · open +$102
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$94
other 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 46% -10.3%
≤30d 26 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 46% -10.3%
≤90d 26 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 46% -10.3%
all 26 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 46% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 46% -10.3%
10% -24.4% 42% -18.9%
15% -31.7% 38% -26.7%
20% -38.4% 35% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$49 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 78¢ $216 $318 +$102 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $106 +$114 +107%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 +$49 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$28 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$11 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $323 −$322 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$8 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $377 +$45 +12%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$28 +68%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$29 -83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $374 +$95 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$91 -89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $41 +$45 +112%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $202 +$89 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $245 +$136 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $219 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $220 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $106 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $57 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 50¢ $29 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $17 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 23h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $323 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $51 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 30¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $94 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $377 41h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $20 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $19 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $68 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain $6 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $36 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $469 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.48 · official $318.48 (match) · 47 history records