Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x210f…6ae4
other · 231 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$74 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage122d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 230 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$18
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $296 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $276 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $285 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $354 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $299 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $190 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 30 $288 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $127 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 29 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $130 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $391 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $150 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $216 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$33
sports 23% −$20
politics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$4
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 3h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 8h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 9h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 15h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 16h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 18h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 20h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 27h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 28h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 30h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 35h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 36h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 38h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 39h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 41h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 43h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 45h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 47h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 230 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.68 · official $55.68 (match) · 1233 history records