Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x210d…7eb8 other 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%23W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 26% −$4
politics 17% −$4
crypto 7% −$3
culture 7% $0
world 6% $0
economics 5% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.7%
all 219 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses23 / 196
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage172d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 94¢ 94¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $85 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $30 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 30 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $34 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $69 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $243 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $383 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $104 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 26 $53 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $72 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $27 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $23 7d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $24 7d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 96¢ $30 15d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $30 16d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $26 23d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $26 24d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $30 32d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $30 32d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $24 39d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $24 39d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $28 78d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $28 78d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 78d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 79d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 79d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 79d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $22 79d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $22 79d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $27 79d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $28 79d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 79d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 79d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $24 79d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $24 80d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $31 80d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 80d
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $29 80d
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 86d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $21 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.57 · official $26.57 (match) · 832 history records