Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x210c…f1b9 crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
politics 23% −$2
sports 16% −$49
crypto 6% −$24
weather 3% +$16
other 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +50.4% +36.1% 57% 57% -0.5%
≤30d 7 +50.4% +36.1% 57% 57% -0.5%
≤90d 11 +9.2% -1.2% 45% 45% -7.2%
all 37 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 19% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 19% -13.1%
10% -19.5% 16% -21.4%
15% -27.3% 16% -29.0%
20% -34.4% 11% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage526d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $228 $228 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$14 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $7 +$8 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $23 +$11 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$8 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 16 $22 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jan 18 $198 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Bulls Nov 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Flames vs. Wild Nov 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canucks Nov 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on No Nov 09 $3 +$8 +300%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on No Nov 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Jets vs. Kings Nov 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12? Oct 07 $26 −$5 -19%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 05 $6 −$1 -12%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 04 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 02 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $22 $0 -0%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 18 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 17 $15 −$1 -6%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 10 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 08 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $228 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $223 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $224 9h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $224 9h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $224 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $12 33d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 67¢ $22 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? BUY Down 32¢ $5 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? BUY No 43¢ $13 47d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $197 150d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $197 150d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 150d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $199 150d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $195 150d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $195 150d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $197 150d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $198 150d
Spurs vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 37¢ $21 219d
Flames vs. Wild BUY Flames 43¢ $9 220d
Blue Jackets vs. Canucks BUY Blue Jackets 49¢ $22 221d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on No BUY Yes 25¢ $3 222d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on No BUY No 83¢ $10 223d
Jets vs. Kings BUY Jets 46¢ $7 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.82 · official $227.82 (match) · 80 history records