Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

21 0x210a…e4f1 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$31 (+10%) realized +$32 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+3.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+14.8%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+3.8%
≤30d	2	+14.8%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+3.8%
≤90d	2	+14.8%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+3.8%
all	2	+14.8%	+3.8%	100%	50%	+3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.8%	50%	+3.8%
10%	-6.1%	0%	-6.1%
15%	-15.2%	0%	-15.2%
20%	-23.5%	0%	-23.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$108

Realized+$32

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$108	$108	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$99	+$10	+10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$100	+$19	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$109	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$99	19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$100	43h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.73 · official $107.73 (match) · 5 history records