Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x2104…82d7 sports 1580 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 204d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,665 (+1%) realized +$1,665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate75%1180W / 399L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$261
7 days−$607
14 days−$466
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$843
other 40% +$2,571
world 1% +$24
politics 0% −$220
economics 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.1% -26.8% 57% 43% -45.8%
≤30d 71 +6.1% -4.0% 79% 54% -8.3%
≤90d 534 -34.7% -40.9% 48% 35% -26.8%
all 1579 -0.4% -9.8% 75% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 45% -8.7%
10% -18.5% 26% -17.5%
15% -26.4% 18% -25.4%
20% -33.6% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$59 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1180 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1579 / 1580
History coverage204d ⚠
Avg bet$111
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1579 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $182 +$17 +9%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $98 +$65 +66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $344 −$342 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $277 +$67 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $395 −$394 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $120 +$80 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $59 +$94 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$65 +65%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $62 +$45 +73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $71 +$41 +58%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $62 +$60 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $200 +$8 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $300 +$9 +3%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $78 −$78 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $157 +$13 +8%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $403 +$254 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $119 −$117 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $219 +$97 +44%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $338 −$334 -99%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $401 +$38 +10%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $201 +$22 +11%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $122 −$122 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $74 +$48 +65%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $401 +$34 +8%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $134 +$100 +75%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 +$11 +11%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $177 +$38 +21%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $240 +$242 +101%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $215 +$26 +12%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $200 +$15 +7%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $190 +$9 +5%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $99 +$92 +93%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 May 31 $310 +$19 +6%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 May 31 $274 +$36 +13%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 May 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $100 +$18 +18%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $146 +$6 +4%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 May 30 $150 +$50 +33%
Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 5.5 May 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Dinamo 1948 vs. FCSB: O/U 2.5 May 29 $40 +$21 +52%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 29 $50 +$29 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $182 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $47 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 14¢ $18 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $344 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $277 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $395 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $120 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $0 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $59 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $62 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $71 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $62 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 97¢ $300 8d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $19 8d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $10 8d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $49 8d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $1 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $200 9d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $157 9d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 100¢ $657 9d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 51¢ $205 10d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 75¢ $198 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $119 10d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? SELL No 99¢ $316 10d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $338 10d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 10d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $439 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $18.00 · 3450 history records