trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-0%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 82¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 77¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -259% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 13 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Jun 13 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Jun 13 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 12 | $104 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 12 | $48 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 10 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats | Jun 08 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 08 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 08 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $127 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 06 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 05 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 04 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Jun 03 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 03 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 31 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $315 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 26 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 26 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -20.2% | 0% | -10.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -27.8% | 0% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -34.8% | 0% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -41.2% | 0% | -34.0% |