Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
21 0x2102…6376 crypto 2067 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$475 (+4%) realized +$475 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%1039W / 620L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day225.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$1,645
14 days+$1,548
30 days+$1,548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$1,439
other 10% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (225 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1322 +23.3% +11.6% 66% 66% +12.4%
≤30d 1659 +17.5% +6.3% 63% 63% +6.8%
≤90d 1659 +17.5% +6.3% 63% 63% +6.8%
all 1659 +17.5% +6.3% 63% 63% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 63% +6.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.9% 63% -3.4%
15% -13.1% 63% -12.7%
20% -21.7% 63% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$475
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1039 / 620
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1659 / 2067
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day225.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +88%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.85 · official $4.85 (match) · 3500 history records