trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +64.7% | +49.0% | 75% | 75% | +69.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +60.5% | +45.2% | 80% | 80% | +50.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +31.1% | +18.6% | 62% | 62% | +20.6% |
| all | 19 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 58% | 58% | +16.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 58% | +16.1% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 47% | +5.0% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 42% | -5.1% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 37% | -14.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $50 | $48 | −$2 (-4%) |
| Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? | No | 73¢ | 56¢ | $22 | $17 | −$5 (-23%) |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 23¢ | 4¢ | $30 | $6 | −$24 (-80%) |
| Son Heungmin: 1+ goals | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Jun 17 | $41 | −$40 | -99% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Jun 17 | $14 | +$12 | +86% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $68 | +$112 | +163% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $102 | +$111 | +109% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 11 | $202 | +$89 | +44% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 18 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 10 | $165 | −$29 | -18% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 06 | $250 | +$159 | +63% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Mar 17 | $81 | +$56 | +70% |
| Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad | Mar 17 | $41 | +$9 | +22% |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Mar 17 | $120 | +$119 | +100% |
| Will Trump say "Texas" during the State of the Union address? | Mar 17 | $25 | +$15 | +58% |
| Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | Feb 25 | $80 | +$26 | +32% |
| Will Trump say "Bessent" during the State of the Union address? | Feb 24 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Tim Walz say "Abortion" 5 or more times during the debate? | Oct 02 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will JD Vance say "Trans" during the debate? | Oct 01 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will JD Vance say "Cat" during the debate? | Oct 01 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will JD Vance say "Usha" during the debate? | Oct 01 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate? | Sep 21 | $49 | +$8 | +16% |