Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20fe…5f55 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 646d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$423 (+26%) realized +$504 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$195
14 days+$283
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% +$13
world 28% +$334
other 25% −$93
sports 14% +$83
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +64.7% +49.0% 75% 75% +69.2%
≤30d 5 +60.5% +45.2% 80% 80% +50.7%
≤90d 8 +31.1% +18.6% 62% 62% +20.6%
all 19 +2.4% -7.3% 58% 58% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 58% +16.1%
10% -16.2% 47% +5.0%
15% -24.3% 42% -5.1%
20% -31.7% 37% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$37 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

646d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$504
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage646d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? No 73¢ 56¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-23%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-80%)
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$12 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $68 +$112 +163%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $202 +$89 +44%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 10 $165 −$29 -18%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $250 +$159 +63%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $81 +$56 +70%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Mar 17 $41 +$9 +22%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 17 $120 +$119 +100%
Will Trump say "Texas" during the State of the Union address? Mar 17 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $80 +$26 +32%
Will Trump say "Bessent" during the State of the Union address? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Abortion" 5 or more times during the debate? Oct 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Trans" during the debate? Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Cat" during the debate? Oct 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Usha" during the debate? Oct 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate? Sep 21 $49 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $41 33h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $14 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6d
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 73¢ $4 7d
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 73¢ $18 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $68 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $291 8d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 31d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 37¢ $136 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 42¢ $50 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 45¢ $30 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 45¢ $85 71d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $85 72d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $50 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $409 73d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $250 80d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $67 93d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY No 70¢ $21 114d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $21 114d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY No 78¢ $41 114d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY No 78¢ $19 114d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad BUY Yes 82¢ $41 114d
Will Trump say "Texas" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 114d
Will Trump say "Bessent" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 114d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 116d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 116d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.93 · official $176.93 (match) · 138 history records