Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20fc…1518 crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$892 (+7%) realized +$892 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%119W / 66L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$171
14 days−$171
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$829
sports 3% −$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 52% -21.7%
≤30d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 52% -21.7%
≤90d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 52% -21.7%
all 185 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 54% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 54% -4.4%
10% -20.1% 43% -13.6%
15% -27.8% 30% -21.9%
20% -34.9% 19% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses119 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage110d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -68%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $191 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $133 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $133 +$39 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $94 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $59 +$34 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 08 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 08 $21 +$25 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 08 $60 −$39 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 08 $66 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 08 $80 −$20 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 03 $710 +$162 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 03 $400 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 03 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 03 $300 +$80 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 03 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 03 $728 +$228 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 03 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 03 $150 −$148 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 03 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 03 $40 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 03 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 03 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 03 $30 +$11 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $133 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $94 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $93 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $59 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $59 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $49 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $28 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 388 history records