Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

20 0x20fb…f282 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$90 (+30%) realized +$91 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+30.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+43.9%	+30.2%	75%	75%	+30.4%
≤90d	4	+43.9%	+30.2%	75%	75%	+30.4%
all	4	+43.9%	+30.2%	75%	75%	+30.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.2%	75%	+30.4%
10%	+17.8%	75%	+17.9%
15%	+6.4%	75%	+6.5%
20%	-4.0%	75%	-3.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$50 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$91

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage11d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$51	+$50	+99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$50	+$59	+118%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$51	+$30	+59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$41	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$61	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Ciryl Gane	99¢	$99	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	49¢	$51	7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	91¢	$108	8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	41¢	$50	8d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	34¢	$51	8d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	75¢	$81	11d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$51	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.