Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20fb…e5fa
other · 37 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$5,836 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,559 · open +$355
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$11,918
Realized+$5,559
Unrealized+$355
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage100d
Avg bet$1,597
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 6 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4,698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,623 $6,183 −$440 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,900 $2,100 +$200 (+11%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,500 +$500 (+50%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $886 $895 +$9 (+1%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $750 +$250 (+50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $654 $491 −$164 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $467 −$26 -6%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $135 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,667 −$981 -59%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $251 −$75 -30%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 16 $82 +$48 +58%
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 15 $2,915 +$307 +10%
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 15 $4,030 +$75 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 15 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 13 $10,853 +$5,354 +49%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $27 −$16 -60%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,799 +$200 +11%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 Apr 22 $598 −$14 -2%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Apr 10 $156 +$46 +30%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 01 $104 +$107 +104%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $469 +$17 +4%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? Apr 01 $1,053 +$298 +28%
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Mar 31 $978 +$10 +1%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $2,700 −$133 -5%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $91 −$77 -85%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 24 $237 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 23 $1,200 −$160 -13%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 23 $547 +$6 +1%
Will Midtjylland win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 20 $321 −$313 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $555 +$135 +24%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 10 $4,417 +$979 +22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $2,240 +$228 +10%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 06 $741 −$474 -64%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $940 +$41 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 87% +$5,523
world 10% +$350
sports 3% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 30% +11.3%
≤90d 26 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 27% +4.1%
all 31 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 29% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 29% +3.1%
10% -24.4% 19% -6.7%
15% ← realistic here -31.7% 10% -15.7%
20% -38.4% 6% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,918.35 · official $11,918.35 (match) · 3500 history records