Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20f9…4cdb world 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 754d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$25,002 (-35%) realized −$23,723 · open −$1,279
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%4W / 46L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,359per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4,796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$26,320
crypto 27% +$10,092
economics 18% −$4,197
other 9% −$1,852
politics 3% −$2,469
tech 1% −$400
sports 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 50 -55.1% -59.4% 8% 8% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.4% 8% -46.7%
10% -63.2% 8% -51.8%
15% -66.8% 8% -56.5%
20% -70.1% 8% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$869) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -78% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,458 vs −$994 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

754d coverage
Net worth$4,796
Realized−$23,723
Unrealized−$1,279
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage754d
Avg bet$1,359
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,125 $4,737 −$388 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? Yes $500 $33 −$467 (-93%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Yes 14¢ $450 $26 −$424 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $6,290 −$6,290 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $3,200 −$3,199 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 02 $751 −$751 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 15 $4,612 −$4,612 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 25 $601 −$601 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 24 $3,850 −$1,658 -43%
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference? Sep 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Sep 13 $812 −$812 -100%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 10 $871 −$869 -100%
French election called by September 15? Sep 08 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Sep 08 $3,543 −$3,543 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 18 $2,036 −$2,036 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Aug 15 $670 −$670 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 10? Aug 15 $540 +$5,089 +942%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 02 $4,105 −$4,105 -100%
Will the US add more than 200k jobs in July? Aug 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July? Aug 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? Jul 31 $1,739 −$1,739 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 30 $8,724 +$13,762 +158%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Jul 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Jul 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 27 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 16 $1,115 −$696 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $107K on July 4? Jul 04 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 23 $590 −$590 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 22 $9,026 −$5,819 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 18 $1,569 −$1,191 -76%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 18 $380 −$164 -43%
Will Esperance de Tunis win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -93%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jun 17 $3,586 +$2,290 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? Jun 13 $580 −$580 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 11 $400 −$200 -50%
Will Trump declare martial law in LA by Friday? Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jun 08 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 6? Jun 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 06 $291 −$291 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? Jun 06 $328 +$692 +211%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jun 05 $403 −$403 -100%
DeepSeek banned in US before July? May 30 $229 −$171 -75%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
DeepSeek removed from App Store before March? Feb 10 $428 −$428 -100%
DeepSeek banned in US before April? Feb 10 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? Sep 10 $221 −$221 -100%
Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points in Sept meeting? Sep 07 $395 −$173 -44%
Biden drops out by July 4? Jul 03 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros? Jun 24 $74 −$74 -100%
Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? Jun 24 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Biden say "AI" or "Artificial intelligence" during the debate? Jun 24 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Trump mention $boden before July? Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Rishi Sunak be next UK prime minister? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,574 5m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,795.78 · official $4,795.78 (match) · 863 history records