trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 37¢ | 16¢ | $57,193 | $23,658 | −$33,535 (-59%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 9¢ | $12,220 | $8,075 | −$4,145 (-34%) |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | No | 60¢ | 99¢ | $1,322 | $2,175 | +$853 (+65%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $2,537 | $70 | −$2,466 (-97%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $702 | $0 | −$702 (-100%) |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $36 | $0 | −$36 (-100%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $27,981 | $0 | −$27,981 (-100%) |
| Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $1,379 | $0 | −$1,379 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $27,985 | −$27,981 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | May 29 | $702 | −$702 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $30,283 | +$70,103 | +232% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jan 05 | $820 | +$180 | +22% |
| Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? | Jan 05 | $10,080 | +$1,920 | +19% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 11 | $160 | −$156 | -98% |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | Oct 02 | $13,730 | +$2,270 | +16% |
| Astronomer Divorce Parlay | Sep 19 | $1,113 | +$386 | +35% |
| Will Trump resign today? | Sep 19 | $9,940 | +$60 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Aug 29 | $1,494 | +$651 | +44% |
| Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? | May 14 | $1,785 | −$1,289 | -72% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 20 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Feb 20 | $7,645 | +$377 | +5% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | Feb 20 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Feb 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Super Bowl LIX Winner | Feb 10 | $1,600 | −$1,600 | -100% |
| Trump cryptocurrency executive order in first week? | Jan 24 | $1,042 | +$3,167 | +304% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 22 | $19,860 | +$7,041 | +36% |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Jan 22 | $23,802 | +$192 | +1% |
| Will there be a US Government shutdown? | Jan 20 | $19,700 | +$300 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk speak at the RNC today? | Jul 27 | $1,993 | +$7 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +10.5% | -0.0% | 33% | 33% | +54.0% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +10.5% | -0.0% | 33% | 33% | +54.0% |
| all | 21 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 62% | 38% | +19.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -12.8% | 38% | +19.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -21.2% | 24% | +7.7% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 19% | -2.7% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 10% | -12.3% |