Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x20f4…1672 sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+7%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$5
sports 40% +$10
crypto 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 58% -5.0%
≤30d 24 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 58% -5.0%
≤90d 24 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 58% -5.0%
all 24 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 58% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 58% -5.0%
10% -12.5% 46% -14.1%
15% -21.0% 38% -22.4%
20% -28.7% 12% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 84¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 +$4 +180%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 −$10 -20%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +24%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 +$2 +43%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -83%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$4 +181%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 19m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 28m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 76¢ $10 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $8 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 19h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $5 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $7 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 22h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL New Zealand $1 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 23h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 51¢ $3 23h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 26h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.77 · official $7.73 (match) · 52 history records