Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20ee…7774 crypto 906 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,450 (-15%) realized −$2,450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%380W / 524L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$683
7 days−$2,060
14 days−$3,710
30 days−$3,415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$2,356
sports 15% −$438
other 11% −$177
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -30.5% -37.1% 32% 29% -35.4%
≤30d 561 -35.1% -41.3% 29% 27% -38.1%
≤90d 796 -18.0% -25.9% 40% 37% -27.1%
all 904 -13.4% -21.6% 42% 39% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 39% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 35% -33.4%
15% -36.0% 31% -39.9%
20% -42.3% 24% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses380 / 524
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)904 / 906
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 904 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $162 −$154 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $69 −$67 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$26 -49%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $206 +$83 +41%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $101 +$56 +55%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$75 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records