Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

20 0x20ed…7f85 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2,766 (+38%) realized +$2,744 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%24W / 19L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$144per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$56est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days+$238

14 days+$2,070

30 days+$2,764

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-4.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-21.0%	-28.6%	47%	47%	-0.2%
≤30d	43	+5.7%	-4.4%	56%	56%	+30.1%
≤90d	43	+5.7%	-4.4%	56%	56%	+30.1%
all	43	+5.7%	-4.4%	56%	56%	+30.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.4%	56%	+30.1%
10%	-13.5%	56%	+17.6%
15%	-21.9%	53%	+6.3%
20%	-29.5%	49%	-4.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -0% → late +12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$186 vs −$89 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$864

Realized+$2,744

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses24 / 19

Est. fees paid−$56

Open positions7

Markets (closed)43 / 50

History coverage18d

Avg bet$144

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 43 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$290	$288	−$2 (-1%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	71¢	69¢	$200	$193	−$7 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$100	$123	+$23 (+23%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	4¢	$92	$117	+$25 (+28%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	72¢	66¢	$100	$92	−$8 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	54¢	50¢	$40	$37	−$3 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	67¢	50¢	$20	$15	−$5 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 21	$83	+$67	+81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$101	−$39	-39%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$131	+$75	+57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$202	+$126	+62%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$508	+$534	+105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	Jun 18	$127	−$126	-99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$253	−$250	-99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$131	+$75	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$111	+$44	+40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$201	+$46	+23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$721	+$1,018	+141%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$55	+55%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Jun 14	$132	+$193	+146%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	Jun 14	$254	+$246	+97%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$255	+$440	+172%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	Jun 14	$152	+$94	+62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$390	+$323	+83%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)	Jun 11	$152	+$111	+73%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)	Jun 11	$228	+$135	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 09	$150	−$145	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 09	$93	−$90	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 09	$97	+$44	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 09	$39	−$39	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 09	$92	−$89	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 09	$31	+$21	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 09	$16	+$15	+95%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Jun 09	$101	+$51	+50%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)	Jun 08	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)	Jun 08	$101	−$100	-99%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 08	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)	Jun 08	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Jun 08	$101	−$100	-99%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$102	+$201	+197%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)	Jun 06	$127	+$118	+93%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$226	+$374	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$150	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$83	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$20	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$293	3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	71¢	$202	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$12	12h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	39¢	$62	12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$406	3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$51	3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	BUY New York Yankees	62¢	$127	3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	45¢	$51	3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	66¢	$253	3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$131	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$111	4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$201	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$255	8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	BUY Knicks	40¢	$132	8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	BUY Knicks	50¢	$254	8d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	BUY Knicks	61¢	$152	8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	8d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	63¢	$131	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.44 · official $864.44 (match) · 92 history records