Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20ec…9df4 politics 15 markets active 18d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$398 (-47%) realized −$135 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$320
other 7% −$12
world 6% −$50
crypto 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 -61.2% -64.9% 8% 8% -76.3%
all 12 -61.2% -64.9% 8% 8% -76.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.9% 8% -76.3%
10% -68.2% 8% -78.6%
15% -71.3% 8% -80.7%
20% -74.1% 8% -82.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$16 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage33d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $181 $352 +$171 (+95%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $450 $25 −$425 (-95%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 7¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 U May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Reform UK win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 May 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $10 +$38 +366%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 07 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.77 · official $377.77 (match) · 18 history records