Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20e8…136e
other · 3 markets active 3h ago
3.0score
−$211 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$108 · open −$118
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,775
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage71d
Avg bet$2,510
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 1 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,894 $1,775 −$118 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $906 −$17 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,777 +$125 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,950 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,695 47d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $489 53d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $400 53d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $889 53d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $500 53d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $500 53d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 53d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1,804 53d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $58 53d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 53d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $907 71d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,777 71d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $906 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 0% -5.9%
all 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 0% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 0% -5.9%
10% -16.1% 0% -14.9%
15% -24.2% 0% -23.1%
20% -31.6% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,775.49 · official $1,775.49 (match) · 39 history records