Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20e7…0b7c other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-5%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$9
sports 14% −$3
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -29.0% -35.8% 53% 18% -13.2%
≤30d 17 -29.0% -35.8% 53% 18% -13.2%
≤90d 17 -29.0% -35.8% 53% 18% -13.2%
all 17 -29.0% -35.8% 53% 18% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 18% -13.2%
10% -41.9% 12% -21.5%
15% -47.5% 0% -29.1%
20% -52.7% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $90 +$5 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $38 +$9 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +28%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 45h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 70¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $90 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 41¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 47¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.07 · official $10.07 (match) · 39 history records