Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20e5…c62c other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,371 (+33%) realized +$566 · open +$805
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$2,443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$2,385
sports 14% +$47
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 41% +49.0%
≤30d 22 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 41% +49.0%
≤90d 22 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 41% +49.0%
all 22 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 41% +49.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 41% +49.0%
10% -15.6% 36% +34.7%
15% -23.7% 32% +21.7%
20% -31.2% 23% +9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$81 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,443
Realized+$566
Unrealized+$805
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)22 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $800 $1,152 +$352 (+44%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 52¢ $208 $670 +$462 (+222%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+69%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $327 +$1,780 +544%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$288 +57%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $143 −$140 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $227 −$221 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -51%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +227%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $113 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $112 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $215 4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $143 25h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 29h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,443.45 · official $2,443.45 (match) · 58 history records