trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +7.2% | -3.0% | 100% | 0% | -3.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +7.2% | -3.0% | 100% | 0% | -3.0% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -64.3% | -67.7% | 33% | 0% | -29.1% |
| all | 22 | -18.6% | -26.4% | 73% | 23% | -17.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.4% | 23% | -17.8% |
| 10% | -33.4% | 9% | -25.7% |
| 15% | -39.8% | 5% | -32.8% |
| 20% | -45.7% | 5% | -39.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 90¢ | $1,200 | $1,411 | +$211 (+18%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1,000 | $1,087 | +$87 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 27 | $542 | +$39 | +7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 15 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Apr 13 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by February 28? | Mar 01 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 28 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 28 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Feb 22 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | Feb 21 | $100 | +$12 | +12% |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | Feb 14 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? | Feb 14 | $100 | +$9 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Feb 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | Feb 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | Feb 11 | $20 | +$11 | +54% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET | Feb 11 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 07 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 02 | $200 | +$46 | +23% |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Jan 27 | $200 | +$18 | +9% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jan 27 | $100 | +$8 | +8% |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Jan 25 | $100 | +$22 | +22% |
| AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | Jan 25 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | Jan 19 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Jan 17 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |