Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20e3…ccfe world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$4
crypto 15% +$3
other 11% +$3
politics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 12% -10.5%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 5% -10.0%
all 35 +2.6% -7.2% 34% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 9% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage416d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -20%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $66 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 24 $164 +$3 +2%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +63%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p May 07 $17 $0 +3%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $22 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $36 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.80 · official $25.95 (match) · 133 history records