Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20e2…667f sports 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 437d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$153,173 (-30%) realized −$152,611 · open −$562
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%71W / 155L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,274per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1,306est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,370
14 days+$4,904
30 days+$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$126,025
economics 4% −$19,893
other 2% −$5,575
politics 0% −$1,595
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +25.0% +13.1% 38% 34% -54.1%
≤30d 170 -4.2% -13.3% 28% 26% -7.2%
≤90d 183 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 25% -57.1%
all 226 -10.1% -18.7% 31% 29% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 29% -36.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 27% -42.5%
15% -33.6% 23% -48.0%
20% -40.1% 21% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,902 vs −$1,855 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

437d coverage
Net worth$2,057
Realized−$152,611
Unrealized−$562
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses71 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,306
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage437d
Avg bet$2,274
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2,619 $2,057 −$562 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $5 +$15 +283%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 −$8 -44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$4 +376%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +117%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $16 +$19 +118%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $76 −$11 -15%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $6 +$20 +327%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $628 −$623 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $1,650 −$1,595 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $127 +$898 +710%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $64 −$41 -64%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $7 +$3 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $5 +$5 +98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $27 +$68 +249%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $2 +$3 +163%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $14 +$11 +81%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by W Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 06 $3,402 −$3,348 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $13 −$3 -22%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $320 −$300 -94%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 06 $4 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,036 40m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 24¢ $1 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 20¢ $1 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 30¢ $2 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 30¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 21¢ $1 3d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 18¢ $0 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 18¢ $1 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 24¢ $1 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 23¢ $1 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 23¢ $1 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 30¢ $1 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 30¢ $0 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 45¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 47¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 35¢ $2 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 32¢ $1 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 32¢ $13 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 32¢ $13 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 32¢ $4 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 32¢ $13 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 23¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,056.70 · official $2,056.70 (match) · 2514 history records