Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20e2…73c1 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$25 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate98%39W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% +0.8%
≤30d 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% +0.8%
≤90d 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% +0.8%
all 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 18% +0.8%
10% -15.0% 5% -8.9%
15% -23.2% 0% -17.7%
20% -30.7% 0% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×64.91 per $1 lost it wins $64.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses39 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 97¢ 99¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 81¢ 96¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 29, 4AM ET? Jun 29 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 29, 4AM ET? BUY No 76¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $150 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.21 · official $226.91 (match) · 88 history records