Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

20 0x20e1…4e7f crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$487 (-27%) realized +$171 · open −$658

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +249% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +169% what you keep after slip

Net edge+169%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$141per market

Trades / day34.0pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+215.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+249.0%	+215.8%	86%	57%	+4.7%
≤30d	7	+249.0%	+215.8%	86%	57%	+4.7%
≤90d	7	+249.0%	+215.8%	86%	57%	+4.7%
all	7	+249.0%	+215.8%	86%	57%	+4.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+215.8%	57%	+4.7%
10% ← realistic here	+185.6%	29%	-5.3%
15%	+158.0%	29%	-14.4%
20%	+132.7%	29%	-22.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +249% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$95 vs −$400 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.43 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$171

Unrealized−$658

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions6

Markets (closed)7 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$141

Trades / day34.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	5¢	0¢	$50	$1	−$49 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	1¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	36¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	40¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	32¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	39¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 17	$402	+$22	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 17	$78	+$68	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 17	$27	+$457	+1714%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 17	$78	+$15	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 17	$50	+$7	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 17	$50	+$2	+4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$407	−$400	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$105	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$103	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$105	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$104	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$424	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$100	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$100	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$100	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$100	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$79	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$104	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$26	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$146	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$484	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$93	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$25	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.83 · official $1.83 (match) · 37 history records