Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x20e0…8501 weather 1129 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$290 (-1%) realized −$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1125W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$15
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$78
finance 1% +$2
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 562 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1127 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1127 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×23.4 per $1 lost it wins $23.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1125 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1127 / 1129
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $355 $355 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $203 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 22? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 22? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 22? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 20? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 16h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.17 · official $355.17 (match) · 3500 history records