Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x20dd…f6ac sports 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,229 (-8%) realized −$13,219 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%278W / 257L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$548est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$594
7 days−$690
14 days−$977
30 days−$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$13,900
other 3% −$325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.0% -18.6% 57% 57% -44.5%
≤30d 21 -45.5% -50.7% 29% 24% -42.7%
≤90d 296 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 32% -45.7%
all 535 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 50% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 50% -17.6%
10% -21.2% 45% -25.5%
15% -28.8% 39% -32.7%
20% -35.8% 31% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$236 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,219
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses278 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$548
Open positions1
Markets (closed)535 / 536
History coverage413d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Allan Nascimento 63¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $761 −$756 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $598 +$163 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $168 −$166 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 +$42 +143%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $247 −$244 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $228 −$81 -35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $176 +$209 +118%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $299 −$21 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $7 +$1 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $7 −$1 -7%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $19 −$19 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $13 −$13 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 16 $899 −$885 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $473 −$465 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $88 +$112 +126%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $28 +$39 +138%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $251 +$43 +17%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $105 +$48 +46%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $89 −$70 -79%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $219 −$216 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5 May 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 5.5 May 15 $200 +$62 +31%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 4.5 May 15 $36 +$70 +195%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $90 +$46 +51%
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Tallon Griekspoor May 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Oeiras 4: Jaime Faria vs Emilio Nava May 15 $169 +$56 +33%
Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 15 $123 −$20 -16%
Paris: Katie Volynets vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 15 $101 +$68 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $97 +$102 +105%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $283 −$280 -99%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 May 14 $99 +$36 +36%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 May 14 $115 +$131 +114%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 14 $98 +$115 +117%
Zagreb: Marco Cecchinato vs Andres Andrade May 14 $148 −$146 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 14 $100 +$146 +146%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $198 −$194 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $344 −$340 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $235 +$304 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 85¢ $501 37m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 75¢ $262 51m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 71¢ $177 52m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 58¢ $439 54m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 63¢ $499 55m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 79¢ $761 1h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre SELL Levan Chokheli 100¢ $761 1h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Levan Chokheli 78¢ $598 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $99 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $69 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $127 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $101 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $72 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $30 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $34 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $134 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 74¢ $100 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $247 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $75 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $141 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $152 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $385 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $176 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $102 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 47¢ $279 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $299 7d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 18¢ $7 21d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Sumudaerji 49¢ $8 21d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Sumudaerji 43¢ $7 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 1319 history records