trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 12 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 83% | 25% | -6.9% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 91% | 13% | -5.4% |
| all | 23 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 91% | 13% | -5.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 13% | -5.4% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 0% | -14.5% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 0% | -22.7% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 0% | -30.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | No | 33¢ | 79¢ | $500 | $1,201 | +$701 (+140%) |
| Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? | No | 69¢ | 94¢ | $516 | $707 | +$190 (+37%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 78¢ | 98¢ | $500 | $631 | +$131 (+26%) |
| Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | Yes | 68¢ | 62¢ | $429 | $394 | −$35 (-8%) |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 74¢ | 89¢ | $200 | $241 | +$41 (+21%) |
| Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | Yes | 88¢ | 36¢ | $304 | $126 | −$178 (-58%) |
| Will Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by July 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 78¢ | $57 | $54 | −$3 (-6%) |
| SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? | No | 52¢ | 93¢ | $27 | $49 | +$22 (+79%) |
| Screwworm National Emergency declared by June 30? | No | 84¢ | 74¢ | $50 | $44 | −$6 (-12%) |
| Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30? | No | 80¢ | 74¢ | $38 | $35 | −$3 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? | Jun 19 | $673 | +$113 | +17% |
| Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President? | Jun 15 | $131 | −$130 | -99% |
| Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2 | Jun 14 | $32 | +$7 | +21% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 11 | $400 | +$5 | +1% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J | Jun 08 | $200 | +$1 | +1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Jun 08 | $70 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A | Jun 08 | $702 | +$24 | +4% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? | Jun 04 | $152 | +$2 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | Jun 01 | $260 | +$38 | +14% |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Jun 01 | $200 | +$15 | +8% |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i | May 31 | $191 | +$17 | +9% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J | May 30 | $150 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI raise between $30B and $40B in its IPO? | May 28 | $45 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $231 | +$21 | +9% |
| Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $200 | +$20 | +10% |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2 | May 21 | $46 | +$4 | +10% |
| Will Lincoln International's market cap be less than $1.75B at market | May 21 | $25 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M | May 19 | $200 | +$12 | +6% |
| Will EagleRock's market cap be less than $2.0B at market close on IPO | May 14 | $89 | +$6 | +7% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | May 14 | $195 | +$6 | +3% |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | May 14 | $300 | +$29 | +10% |
| Will Fervo Energy's market cap be less than $5.5B at market close on I | May 12 | $82 | +$7 | +8% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27 | May 01 | $150 | +$14 | +9% |