Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20da…8db8 politics 125 markets active 3d ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,240 (-2%) realized −$2,240 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate29%36W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,048per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$15
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$60
other 36% +$152
sports 17% −$2,349
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% +$3
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -16.6% -24.5% 10% 1% -12.0%
all 124 -3.3% -12.5% 29% 8% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 8% -11.1%
10% -20.9% 8% -19.6%
15% -28.5% 7% -27.4%
20% -35.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized−$2,240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses36 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,048
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $681 $681 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $428 +$2 +1%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,831 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,444 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $825 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,082 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,608 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $597 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $706 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,590 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,776 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,907 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $278 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $402 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $3,113 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,604 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,439 −$2 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $1,451 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,774 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5,564 −$6 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,431 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $5,449 −$5 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,623 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,891 −$3 -0%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 10 $1,528 −$1,528 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $681 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $824 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $825 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,161 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,162 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $811 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $812 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $668 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $669 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $885 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $886 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $778 16d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $779 16d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $777 16d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $779 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $668 18d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $669 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $621 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $622 21d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $701 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $680.76 · official $680.76 (match) · 388 history records