Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20d6…3856 sports 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$259,595 (+37%) realized +$259,266 · open +$329
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10,767per market
Trades / day163.3pace
Fees−$8,618est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$37,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,441
other 20% +$30,837
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -25.1% -32.3% 32% 20% -33.4%
≤30d 56 +35.2% +22.4% 45% 34% -5.4%
≤90d 56 +35.2% +22.4% 45% 34% -5.4%
all 56 +35.2% +22.4% 45% 34% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.4% 34% -5.4%
10% +10.6% 34% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -0.0% 30% -22.7%
20% -9.8% 27% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$12,540) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +90% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
45.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,806 vs −$6,878 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$37,221
Realized+$259,266
Unrealized+$329
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$8,618
Open positions13
Markets (closed)56 / 66
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$10,767
Trades / day163.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $20,400 $20,576 +$176 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 43¢ 49¢ $7,237 $8,247 +$1,010 (+14%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 19¢ 12¢ $5,710 $3,461 −$2,249 (-39%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 62¢ 94¢ $1,311 $1,977 +$666 (+51%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $852 $921 +$69 (+8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 34¢ 46¢ $387 $536 +$149 (+39%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 40¢ 61¢ $323 $497 +$174 (+54%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 33¢ 52¢ $279 $445 +$166 (+59%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Yes 20¢ 52¢ $111 $285 +$174 (+157%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 53¢ 49¢ $140 $130 −$11 (-8%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs No 25¢ 44¢ $42 $74 +$32 (+76%)
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $91 $65 −$26 (-29%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 63¢ 51¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 28 $1,580 −$1,580 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $578 −$568 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $12,285 +$4,778 +39%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,016 −$3,016 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $53,244 +$2,396 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $926 −$926 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11,800 +$8,200 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $9,720 +$26,280 +270%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $13,461 −$12,332 -92%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. P Jun 26 $2,385 +$3,288 +138%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $134 +$147 +110%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $4,942 +$48 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $19,484 −$17,604 -90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New Jun 24 $44 −$42 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $1,781 −$1,781 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Mia Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Jun 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $244 −$244 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 24 $709 −$709 -100%
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $0 +$1 +562%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $920 −$920 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 24 $77,577 −$7,226 -9%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 24 $15,748 −$4,997 -32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $7,507 −$7,507 -100%
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $9,000 −$9,000 -100%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $13,000 −$13,000 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $15,120 −$15,120 -100%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Devin Vassell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 24 $89,998 −$49,998 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 24 $58,747 −$56,245 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $1,608 −$1,608 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 24 $5,583 −$5,580 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 23 $10 +$10 +104%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12,540 +$25,460 +203%
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 23 $141 +$1 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $7,400 +$12,600 +170%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24,521 +$2,379 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $100,797 +$4,994 +5%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $24,600 −$2,733 -11%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $464 +$1,371 +295%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40,875 +$128,663 +315%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 13 $515 +$382 +74%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 13 $11,050 +$6,467 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 10¢ $5 9m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 10¢ $5 10m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 19¢ $5,839 38m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $28 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $19 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $4 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $41 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $6 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $26 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $37 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $348 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $143 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $63 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $143 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $35 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $7 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $15 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $81 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $63 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $45 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $371 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $18 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 44¢ $74 2h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $1,311 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 6¢ $12 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 6¢ $32 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 6¢ $363 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 11¢ $1 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 11¢ $110 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,220.86 · official $36,919.90 (match) · 3500 history records